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01
Oct

Paul Keating

Who will win? As far as the our funds are concerned it doesn’t really matter who wins the next US election. Biden would likely outspend Trump initially, so we marginally favour him from a performance perspective. Longer term, no difference.   Whoever wins will look to pass a large and popular stimulus bill so we

18
Sep

I’ll wear cashmere and you’ll eat cake

 Debt works You might look around and wonder. I do. Here is Australian retail store Harvey Norman with their latest offer. The offer has some interesting components: No interest for five years. Quite compelling, except that most things Harvey Norman sells will be obsolete in that time. The gift card is worth 5% if you

10
Sep

It’s a Bubble

Bitcoin price falls Cognitive dissonance Thinking one thing, behaving differently, getting stressed as a result I accept and have accepted since I first discovered it, that bitcoin could go to zero. I remind every investor of that possibility. I believe the possibility recedes with time, particularly as the code base ossifies, but it exists as

06
Aug

Death or Glory

Q2 2020 You wont forget Q2 2020 for the rest of your life. For many businesses it was hard, for some it was the end. For others, like Square in the US, it will be remembered as a break out quarter. Their bitcoin sales increased to $875m in Q2, up 185%. Bitcoin miners mined $1bn

24
Jul

You are being primed to get poorer

In December last year we pointed out an obscure speech by a Federal Reserve governor and speculated that they were testing the water on a higher inflation policy. It was the first drip feed that the US inflation target will exceed 2%. The governor in question, Lael Brainard, said the Fed might target an average

17
Jul

Depression

Is it really bad for bitcoin? You would likely have read about the huge twitter hack on Thursday targeting well known accounts, nearly all of them “blue ticks”. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and Elon Musk to name a few. Once again this will bring the focus to bitcoin and how it is very often associated

15
May

Ghosts haunt Christine Lagarde

The ghosts of the Weimar Republic Germany has been incredibly tolerant of its spendthrift Southern neighbors. The Greeks want to retire when they are 23 having served a 3 day week. The Italians want unlimited deficits and permanent chaos and the Spanish are still in bed, they don’t even know they are in the Euro.

05
May

You own nothing.

Price The best advice I can give about the bitcoin price is not to look at it. Over time the price has risen, although it does so in a non-uniform manner. This year is a great example, we have been to $3,900 and $10,500, the sort of volatility that can age a person. Perhaps a

02
Apr

Half or double?

The Halving We have written extensively about the bitcoin halving and how that creates a unique supply curve. Our full report on it can be downloaded on our website. The essence of the bitcoin supply curve is simple. New supply is a permanently falling percentage of existing supply. Currently 12.5 bitcoins are produced in each

27
Mar

A difference of opinion

A difference of opinion Debate rages this week about the impact of the interventions of the Federal Reserve, ECB and other central banks. The argument surrounds the impact of the central banks buying government bonds. Here is Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. “.…………, the Fed can’t make the money printer go brrrrr like we need it